Last year (or maybe it was earlier this year, which makes it almost last year in a couple more days) I read the book "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki. One of the theories espoused in the book was the concept of futures trading for events, not just companies. The idea is that people buy stock or place bets on the outcome of future events. Want to know who will be the next President? Don't poll a bunch of people and ask who they are going to vote for, ask them to put five dollars on the candidate they think is going to win. Apparently using this method with 100 people in some small town USA, was more accurate than any of the polls.
Popular Science Magazine has taken this concept and turned it into an interactive online stock exchange. They call it the Popsci Predictions Exchange. The stocks range from near term, like will HD-DVD outsell Blu-Ray this year, to very long term, like will a team of androids beat a world cup team at soccer by 2050. At the end of the term (when the time limit expires or the outcome is determined) the stocks will have a value of either 100, if true, or 0 if false. So you can buy or sell the stocks based on where the current price is.
The theory is that if the average person thinks the outcome is 60% likely, then the stock price should hover about $60. When an event occurs that might influence the chances, then the stock holders will buy/sell based on the news. It's kind of pointless, but fun as well.
And just like in a real stock market, what you are really betting on isn't what you actually think will happen, but what you think the average stock-holder thinks will happen. Right now I'm buying the EVOTE stock, which says that there will be a problem with US elections due to electronic voting malfunctions. I don't actually think this will happen, but I bet plenty of other people think so. So, now I'm buying. When it gets close to the election, I'll probably sell my shares and short the stock.
On a more personal note: I hate artificial sweeteners. They make me sick, literally.
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